Occidental College is a good illustration of the admissions challenges facing private colleges this year.

On June 1, Occidental had 572 deposits from freshmen for the fall. That is just slightly below the 580 to 590 Occidental estimates it needs to have a good class, when considering the inevitability of summer melt. The college’s target was 535.

But this year, summer melt — when some students who have accepted offers of admission say they will go elsewhere — started early. The college has already lost 41 students to summer melt. (Some committed prior to June 1.) So with 531 students now, it is likely (if summer melt continues) to be short of its enrollment goals, likely by 10 percent or more.

Read Full Article